The public, private sectors, emergency managers, and government institutions at all levels in this country and abroad use NOAA tropical cyclone forecasts to make decisions regarding the protection of life and property. This measure represents the difference between the projected intensity of these storms and the actual intensity in knots (kt) for Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones (i.e., tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes). * Annual Hurricane Season begins June 1 and ends November 30. The final values are produced after a verification and validation period. The measure is validated by computing the average difference (error) for all the 48-hour forecasts occurring during a calendar year. Because tropical cyclones are relatively rare events, this measure can show significant annual volatility. Projecting the long-term trend, and basing out-year goals on that trend, is preferred over making large upward or downward changes to the targets each year.

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