NOAA - Aviation ceiling/visibility forecast false alarm ratio Instrument Flight Rules (%)
performance.commerce.gov | Last Updated 29 Mar 2024The lower this measure is the better, so being below the target is exceeded and above the target is not met. Visibility and cloud ceiling forecasts are critical for aircraft safety and efficient operations. When visibility or cloud ceilings are low, pilots rely on instruments to navigate instead of visual reconnaissance. The Federal Aviation Administration establishes Instrument Flight Rule (IFR) thresholds—visibility less than three statute miles and/or cloud ceilings at, or below, 1000 feet—for safety. NWS assesses the quality of IFR threshold forecasts in response to these requirements. Fundamental statistical metrics, specifically Probability of Detection (POD) and False Alarm Ratio (FAR), are used to track IFR forecast performance. Probability of Detection (POD), also known as Accuracy, is a ratio that describes the number of times IFR is correctly forecasted compared to the total number of IFR occurrences. FAR is a ratio that describes the number of IFR forecasts when IFR was not observed compared to the total number of forecast attempts. These two metrics must always be used in conjunction, as one can be improved at the expense of the other. Greater accuracy and a minimized FAR result in safer flights and fewer flight delays; conversely, poorer accuracy and an increased FAR result in a greater incidence of unnecessary flight delays. *Please also note that a FAR is is the number of false alarms per the total number of warnings. So if a FAR actual is higher than the target, then the target has not been met. If the actual is the same number or less, then it has been met or exceeded.
This dataset has the following 6 columns:
Column Name | API Column Name | Data Type | Sample Values |
---|---|---|---|
Performance Indicator | performance_indicator | text | Aviation ceiling/visibility forecast false alarm ratio Instrument Flight Rules (%) view top 100 |
Fiscal Year | fiscal_year | calendar_date | 2014-09-30T00:00:00.000 2017-09-30T00:00:00.000 2016-09-30T00:00:00.000 2006-09-30T00:00:00.000 2005-09-30T00:00:00.000 view top 100 |
Actual | actual | number | 0.3600 0.3700 0.3900 0.3300 0.3800 view top 100 |
Target | target | number | 0.3800 0.4400 0.400 0.4200 0.4500 view top 100 |
Proximity | proximity | number | 1.02703 1.05556 1.12821 1.15152 1.11765 view top 100 |
Status | status | text | Exceeded Met view top 100 |